Tactics-xg
4 articles
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Expected Threat (xT) vs Expected Goals (xG): Which Metric Better Predicts Weekend Football Upsets?
Why ball progression into Zone 14 and half-space carries often signal a team's breakout weeks before raw scorelines catch up.
Marcus VanceOct 21, 20268 min
Post-Shot Expected Goals (PSxG) Audit: Ranking Europe's Most Clinical Finishers and Shot-Stopping Goalkeepers
Separating chance quality from finishing skill across the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, and Serie A.
Elena RostovaOct 20, 20265 min
Pressing Traps and PPDA Benchmarks: How Out-of-Possession Triggers Generate High-Value Turnovers
Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action (PPDA) reveals which European midfields suffocate build-up play in the final third.
Liam GallagherOct 19, 20266 min
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The Poisson Goal Distribution Model: Converting Team Attack Strength into Exact Scoreline Probabilities
How football quants and prediction market traders calculate fair implied odds for 1-0, 2-1, and 1-1 scorelines.
Oliver HartleyOct 18, 20267 min